2011 NBA

Happy New Year to everyone...

I think I may break out a NHL play in a bit and maybe some NBA...

I talked about the Overs for the Bowl games weeks ago on my Blog and sure enough, the Overs have dominated, with 4 more today in 4 games...

Be back in a bit...

25-17, +$845

NBA

New Orleans/Washington Over 187, laying $110 to win $100 -- Washington has gone Under 10 straight and in the 19 1/2 years that I have in my NBA database, there have only been 4 teams that have hit an Under 11 and the last occurence was the Pacers in late March of 2003...No team has had an Under 12 in the last 19-plus seasons...All the Hornets trends point to the Under here, but Washington is 3-1 to the Over on back-enders and 1-0 to the Over when they and their opponent are both on a back-ender this season...Besides, the Wizards' game yesterday had the 2nd fastest PACE of the 8 games played, but turnovers and bad shooting was the reason it stayed Under...

NHL

Washington/Pittsburgh Under 5.5, +110, laying $100 to win $110 -- I don't believe any of these outdoor NHL games in recent years have gone Under...I am going from memory and may be wrong, but I believe they have all stayed Under...It is unseasonably warm in Pittsburgh today and I wonder if this will effect the condition of the ice...It may be choppy or slow, it may be fine, but the recent trends for these 2 teams point to the Under and it actually is a chart-play to the Under for these 2 teams head-to-head as the last game went Under after 8 straight Overs...

GL...

2nd half play:

Miami Heat -15, 2H, laying $110 to win $100 -- Back-end of a back-to-back for GS and Lee may ot return for the 2H for GS...The Warriors shot 64% in the 1H and only had 2 turnovers & shot 75% from 3-point land...They played a perfect 1H and led by 20 with a minute to go and then BAM, Miami finishes the half on a 6-0 run...Look for More of the same for Miami in the 2H as GS CANNOT shoot this well again in the 2H as Miami, with the #1 defense in the league in term of FG%, will clamp it down on them...Might be an Under, too...

GL...

2nd half play:

Oklahoma City/San Antonio Over 99, 2H, laying $110 to win $100 -- The PACE is frenetic, but 19 turnovers for the half and OKC shooting 29.3% at the half made it a somewhat low-scoring half at 85...The Pace dictates 100+ points for the 2H...OKC should cover the 2H line, too...

GL...

Have to brief here as it has been another crazy day at work...

I won't post a bet because of the extreme lateness here, but I like this Golden State/Orlando Over 211 and I kind of like the Sixers as one of the top (if not the best) ATS team in the league, getting 6 points at New Orleans after just smacking this team down about 3 weeks ago in Philly...We'll call these "leans" as I am not going to bet these games as I HATE betting games when feeling this rushed at work...Mia/Char would seem like a natural Under, too, especially with Wallace out for CHAR...

I will look for 2H bets, tonight, though...

The CRAZY season has hit at work again as it does every year starting in January and this is the time of year when I usually stop posting...

My bets will be down for sure, but I will do my best to get some thoughts posted and I can somehow rustle up some free time, I will post bets that I make...

But I would be remiss NOT to mention this Wizards game tonight at Philly...

The Wizards are trying to become the first team in at least 20 seasons (this is as far as my database goes back to at the moment) to have 12 straight Unders...The Wizards are the 5th team in the last 20 seasons to have an 11 consecutive Unders...The last instance was 2003...This total opened at 190 and has gone up of all things...I guess people are just saying it HAS TO END, and I agree, it HAS TO END, but when?...WASH has NJ, CHAR and SAC after Philly tonight, so man, this could hit 15 before playing Minny...We have some Under teams on the slate here...

But an Under streak of this magnitude is MUCH harder to maintain than an Over streak of this magnitude...

There have been 7 Over streaks of 12 and 5 of those ended at 12...1 ended at 13 and the other one ended at 16...But with Overs, you have OT games potentially, foul-fests at the end of games...

But with long Under streaks?...

How long can you go without your team having one scorching-hot shooting night?...How long can you avoid fast-paced games or high shooting-percentage games?...

The Wizards have had 3 days off for this one...The first 2 meetings in November went over tonight's total easily in regulation and both went into OT for bonus points...Hinrich and Blatche will play tonight and Josh Howard practiced this afternoon so even though he is listed as questionable, maybe he'll play a little...

So with all of this said:

27-19, +$835

Washington/Philadelphia Over 191.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- I am betting this thing Over as heck, there is enough evidence for me to see the Under-streak ending tonight for the Wizards...

GL...

^ Hahaha thats awsome, posted the same pick a minute later.

Hope we win...GL Locky...

---------------------------

Overs coming?...

Also, another side note before these games get into full swing tonight...

There have been a BOATLOAD of Unders in the NBA recently and I figured I' wait until I see the first signs of a turnaround for the Overs...

I believe that sign happened last night with 5 out of the 7 games going Over...And the Lakers game came close...

I have seen this a lot over the years...Scoring disappears and a rash of unders hit, and then voila, here comes a burst of Overs...

I think the Overs are coming for a few days...

We got 102 points at the Half. I can't help but feel they could have done a lot better. I hope they can get 90 in the 2nd half without any difficulty.

You might be onto something with overs coming in. Today seems to be another over day with 2 games remaining and 2 possible overs too.

Well, another plus for an Over streak coming Locky is that we have not had an OT game for 9 straight days coming into tonight, which is definitely an above-average streak...And obviously, most OT games in the NBA go Over the total...

So with Overs due, and OT games due, it's the perfect storm for a good stretch of Overs the next few days...

Looking at tonight, 7 out of 8 Overs already with 3 games left and that Milw/Orlando Under missed pushing the total by 4 points...

Another 2 dogs cover, Suns and Clippers. Both unders though.

I am taking a shot with Oklahoma City...

28-19, +$935

Oklahoma City Thunder -2.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- Caron Butler out for the year and Nowitzki out again tonight...The Mavs rose up without Butler the last 2 times out (CLE & PORT) and won...Now you are asking them to do it again with a hungry OKC team coming to town...OKC has lost 2 straight and haven't lost 3 straight all year...I don't care too much about that fact as much as the fact that Dallas has risen up to win their last 2 games being short-handed and are now asked to do so again a third time with a step up in class against OKC...The Thunder have already lost twice to Dallas this season already so they have a double-revenge spot to boot...

GL...

And oh-by-the-way, 2 games, 2 Overs tonight, to go to 10-3 to the Over the last 2 days...

I do like a game tonight for sure, as I beging to investigate it and I have leans on others but i am short on time right now...

Just wanted to follow up on the Washington Wizards and their record-tying Under streak coming to an end last time out...

Now my chart-plays say that this streak will automatically reverse it self and we'll have a string of Overs coming up for the Wizards...When i look at the previous 4 streaks of Under-11's ending, each and eevry instance had another Under as soon as the streak was snapped and there was no chart-play stretch to the Over in any of those instances...

So i wil lay off the Over but I am still convinced we will see a chart-play stretch of Overs here because the Wizards have gotten some key players back the same day the Under streak ended, so I believe we'll see some Overs here for the Wiz...

Back with more including a play later...

29-19, +$1035

New Jersey Nets -3, 2H, laying $220 to win $200 -- Tjis is a minimum 3-unit play that I will play for 2 units as the Nets shot 30.2% in the 1st half while WASH shot 59.5% in the 1H, so these percentages should gravitate towards the mean in the 2H... A discrepancy this big is a standard 2H play among teams of equal class...

GL...

Random NBA Database stats:

Been logging a lot of hours at work and haven't been capping too heavily the past few days, so I'll just lay out some random stats for the 2010-2011 season from my NBA database, which has stats, lines and trends for 20 seasons now...

First a follow-up on the announcement I made on Wednesday, January 5th, where I said the Overs were coming that night and for a few days...

Wed: Overs 8-3
Thur: Overs 2-0
Fri: Overs 7-4
Sat: Overs 6-2

Record: Overs 23-9 those 4 days...

Sundays are historically a good day for Unders in the NBA with the different start times, so I would have stopped betting all the Overs after Saturday...So the Over burst lasted 5 days as remember, the Overs were 5-2 on the Tuesday that alerted me to the Over burst about to come...These bursts usually last about 4 or 5 days, as did this one...

Now some random stats from my database (as of 1/10):

ATL: 18-7 to the Under vs. conference opponents, yet 10-4 to the Over vs. non-conference opponents...
BOS: 13-2 to the Under their last 15 first-half team totals
CHA: 11-23-1 ATS on the before-the-game 3Q line this season...
CHI: 7-1 ATS in the 2nd half when trailing by double-digits at half-time
CLE: 1-7 ATS their last 8 second-halves when trailing by double-digits at half-time (includes LAL debacle on 1/11)
DAL: 12-2 ATS on the Road
DEN: 27-9-1 to the Under in the 1Q this season (including PHOE game on 1/11) -- started season 12-0 to the Under
DET: 11-6 to the Under in Non-conference games, yet 13-7 to the Over in conference games
GS: 23-7 to the Under in their first 30 1st Quarter Team totals, although they have now gone Over their last 7 straight
HOU: 10-4 to the Under in non-conference games
IND: 16-5 to the Under in conference games and had 9 straight 2H team totals Under going into their 1/11 game (both of these went Over against Philly on 1/11, although the game total as a strong Over chart-play)
LAC: 25-10-1 to the Over on 1Q team totals and those have gone Over their last 11 in a row
LAL: 12-5 to the Under in non-conference games
MEM: 13-5-2 to the Over their last 20 2nd half lines & 16-8 to the Over in conference games
MIA: 28-11 ATS covering before-the-game 3Q lines and 3-1 ATS when trailing by double-digits at the half
MIL: 6-11 ATS and 11-5 to the Under in non-conference games
MIN: 0-7 SU in division games and 6-1 to the Over in division games
NJ: 9-4 to the Over in non-conference games
NO: 11-4-1 ATS and 12-4 to the Under in non-conference games
NY: 11-5 ATS in non-conference games (including 1/11) and 15-5 ATS on the Road (including 1/11)
OKC: 5-1-1 ATS & 6-1 to the Over in division games and 16-7 to the Over in conference games
ORL: started season 9-19 ATS in the 2H, but is now 7-2 their last 9 2H lines
PHI: 15-6 ATS in 2H lines when trailing at the half (did not cover on 1/11) & 6-1 to the under in division games
PHO: 6-3 ATS in 2H lines when doen double-digits at the half
POR: 5-2 to the Over when they have rest and their opponent is on a back-ender
SAC: 2-8-1 ATS when they have rest and their opponent is on a back-ender and 1-6-1 ATS in division games
SA: started season 18-5 ATS with 2H lines, but are now 5-9 ATS their last 14 including not covering their last 4
TOR: 5-0 to the Under when they have rest and their opponent is on a back-ender
UTA: 11-3 ATS in non-conference games & 24-13-1 to the Under on 1H lines, 10-28 ATS on 1Q lines and 9-28-1 ATS on 1H lines
WAS: 9-16 ATS in conference games & 5-1 to the under when they have rest and their opponent is on a back-ender

A little low on time again, but i'll be watching for 2nd half plays...

I do like the Knicks +3.5 on the 1st-half line and the Nets +6 on the game line...

Monta Ellis a game-time decision for GS vs. the Lakers, who have owned the Warriors the last couple of years as GS has had no answer for the trees the lakers can plant in the paint...Leaning to the Clippers a little bit, as the Heat have been taken to the limit the first 2 games of this 5-game road trip with 2 OT wins...Clippers playing better basketball of late, winning 7 of their last 10...

We'll see if any 2H opportunities present themselves and who knows, maybe I'll play a late game...

LoL, I saw Vinny posted your previous post at Bettorschat, I asked him about it, i know its not the biggest deal, i was just surprised to see that exact post posted on another site.... I guess thats a respect thing? Hope its cool with you atleast mang!

I understand wat ur saying but I think he was just trying to help people win some $, he didn't take credit for it bing his info or n e thing. Said he got it from his buddy, I c y u night want to ask but I wouldn't have thought too, and u know I wouldn't disrespect my boys. Now I know to ask bout info first. Diffrent strokes for diff folks I guess. If u mention another site over there then it's like u walked up and slapped their mom or sumthing. I know there was no disrespect intended. Just my 2 cents. Thx Brew. I for one love the info, it's opening my eyes to a new way of tracking. If u don't mind me asking, do u have a program u se to log info or sumthing, thx for all u guys do peace hommiez

Yeah well when you see one of your guys' info posted on another site and you take as much pride as we do?

Then it just makes me wonder what motivated that, I know Steve asked him to share our stuff where ever he could, but that wasnt what we meant, credit..... Not ...

"Some Guys NBA DBase"

Brewers7!!! Thats whose Dbase it is, thats who should get mentioned in a post like that at another site.... All im sayin!