This week in the NBA...

OK, technical difficulties precluded me from making my first post here yesterday...This was posted on my Blog on Wednesday and I will be posting here every time I post in my blog:

My NBA record on therx forum was 6-6, -$410 before I got the bug bites and went to the ER and then took some time off from posting as it has been busy at work...Blog record has been horrific to start at 1-5, -$625, but I had a throw-away game and a tough 2H loss in there...If I started the blog one week earlier, I would have had my only hot streak of the year on record, but hey, that is the breaks as this is a marathon and not a sprint and I have been down 10 units before early in the season in the past before my main profitable months of January through mid-March hits, then the end of the season means reduced bet amounts and then the playoffs go and I have had a lot of success in the postseason with the exception of a few seasons (last year was breakeven at best)...

Now to tonight as it is getting late, but now that the "official" record-keeping is done, I am going to go back to my roots and start taking some Dogs, which has been my trademark over the years...

I am reducing my bet to 1 unit until I get hot with the exception of some 2H bets...

Philadelphia 76ers +9, laying $110 to win $100 -- Same situation I mistakenly bet the other way last night with the Lakers...So I am taking the 76ers tonight as they are in a similar spot tonight...Boston has the look-ahead game to ORL on Christmas and the Celtics have a nice winning streak going and the 76ers are coming off an embarrassing loss the night before (45-point loss)...I watched the Bucks play and get hammered by PORT 2 nights ago and mistakenly thought they had no shot vs. LAL and they blew the Lakers out...Sixers looked horrible last night, so how can they stay with Boston tonight??...Take Philly...

Denver Nuggets +8, laying $110 to win $100 -- K'Mart supposed to be back but that doesn't mean much to me...the away team has won 5 straight in this series and the Nuggets have a quick-turnaround revenge spot for a loss from just last THUR on 12/16 at Home by one game...I like these quick-turnaround revenge spots and will gladly take the 8 points with the Nuggets tonight as SA cannot keep up this 24-3 pace forever...

GL...

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Also as a note, I am 8-2 (+$1220) in the NFL this season (as documented on ThinkDog), and who knows, I may have a few NFL plays yet this season...

Good day on Wednesday as I went back to basic NBA handicapping principles and went 2-0 with 2 pretty easy wins as those Dogs were covering the spreads the entire 48 minutes of the game as neither FAV was covering the chalk at any point during the game...

Also, as I update my documented record for the year, I will have to include my NFL plays, all made at ThinkDog (http://sportsbetting.formyjob.net/t1479-nfl-season-long-thread]) ...I am 8-2, +$1420 on the year with NFL plays and who knows, I may have another play or 2 for this season...

So to get my NFL and NBA records up-to-date for the year, we have:

NFL -- 8-2, +$1420 (ThinkDog)
NBA -- 6-6, -$410 (TheRX)
NBA -- 3-5, -$425 (Blog)

All documented...Only one 3-unit bet the whole season (NFL) and everything else has been 1, 1.5 or 2-unit bets...I had a month off before the Blog started in which I did well, but nothing is posted, so there is zero documentation, so that month is irrelevant...I am hoping that my 2-0 night yesterday turns the corner from a week-long slump...

So, 17-13, +$575, up to the minute...

This is the time of the year I usually start to heat up in the NBA...But since I came off a little cold-spell, I will keep my next few bets at 1-unit and then I may start doing 2-unit plays again...

Tonight I have 2...

Orlando Magic -2, laying $110 to win $100 &
San Antonio/Orlando Over 198, laying $110 to win $100 -- All you have to do is read the Orlando Sentinel newspaper (online) and see that this Orlando team wants to quicken the PACE with their new personnel...They are ranked 19th in the league in PACE and they feel they can change that and guys like J-Rich, Turkolu & Arenas can get them out on the break much better than Rashard Lewis and Vince Carter did...They went Over in their last game...SA has been an offensive juggernaut this season as they are 4th in the league in PPG...Over me, here as I'd be shocked not to see this hit 200 points...Besides, the Spurs are 3-1 to the over in back-enders this season...And as far as the side goes, the Spurs just cannot keep this winning pace up...I knew ORL would need time to mesh after this trade and I gave them 2 games to try and figure it out as I stayed completely away from them, but now, they have had practice time, Stan Van Gundy has the starting lineup in place (Arenas is coming off the bench) and this team should be ready to rock and roll...I just hope I am not one game too soon here, but I am taking a hot because the Spurs are on a back-ender and was pushed by Denver to the limit the last night...I like ORL to snap their 4-game losing streak (8 losses in 9) and get the win tonight...

GL...

Very impressive brew.

Thanx Locky...

I forgot to post my Bowl Game from Friday in this forum...I will post any Bowl Games or NFL Games right here in my NBA Studio from this point forward, so people don't have to look all over the forum for potential plays...On to Christmas Day...

20-13, +$895

Orlando Magic -2.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- The Celtics have won 14 straight, but how long can this go without Rondo?...We do have a good trend in play here, too, which is the Revenge factor for Orlando as they are playing the team that eliminated them from the playoffs for the first time this season...That trend has done well the past few years...Orlando may be about to hit their stride now after losing 8 of 9 now that they have played 3 games with their new personnel...They blew out the Spurs on Thursday and I expect the Magic to go on a run...I definitely like the low number at home here as I expect ORL to win this one...

GL...

Brew has heated up. Awesome stuff dude.

Thanx guys:

I am thinking about a Golden State play tonight...

Stephen Curry returns and I have always liked these quick-turnaround revenge spots as Portland just beat the Warriors by a point at PORT a week ago as GS missed some free throws down the stretch to lose this one 96-95...PORT is banged up and GS hasn't won 2 in a row in over 6 weeks (wins on 11/8 and 11/10)...Curry's importance to this team cannot be understated...He sprained an ankle late in the preseason (final preseason game I believe) and hasn't been 100% all season as he has sprained it 3 times since...

I guess I have about 30 minutes to decide...

I started to post last night about "NBA afternoon Unders", whereby, games that start at 1:00 p.m. (local time of the arena game is being played at) or earlier go Under...I heard about this "urban legend" or trend many years ago, but it doesn't seem to be an urban legend at all as these Unders have come in fairly regularly it seems as I know they started out strong in each of the last few seasons and have started out strong again this year...

How strong?

How about 12-6 to the Under this season after this CHI/NY Under today...

Not bad, eh?...

And one of those "Overs" was an Under in regulation time until Overtime killed it, so we are looking at 13-5 to the Under in regulation time...

I should have posted this last night, but it was after 5:00 in the morning and I was tired...I am posting it tonight because there is another game on Sunday that fits the bill going at Noon PST, Phoenix at the LA Clippers...

21-13, +$995

Golden State Warriors -3, laying $110 to win $100 -- Taking GS for all the reasons I mentioned in the earlier post...Marcus Camby is supposed to play for Portland (according to the GS pre-game show), so you can get this -3 at plus-juice at Pinny or -105 at several other shops, but with Curry back, the Warriors have more scoring options and suddenly a little scoring depth off the bench, and besides, I really like these quick-turnaround revenge spots...I was going to pass with a win already in the books today, but many good handicappers have told me over the years to increase (not reduce) the number of plays you make when you are hot, and I feel like I have snapped a cold streak here the last few days...

GL...

That's Just stupid LoL



So we could have put that Ncaa 1st H (Which we hit) or the NBA play for the late Play and Paid a Brotha either way you're telling me?

Ok then!!

You got it mang...

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Alright, am I getting too fancy here?...

I want to play this Phoenix/LA Clippers game Under in the worst way, to stay in line with the NBA Afternoon Game Unders trend I talked about yesterday...This trend is one that I have simplified, stating that any "NBA game starting at or before 1:05 p.m. (local time at the arena where the contest is being played), you take Under"...13-5 to the Under so far this season in regulation time, although an OT game killed one of the Unders and puts the trend officially at 12-6 to the Under...

On the surface, this total is too low...These 2 teams have FLOWN Over 211 head-to-head for the most part in each of their last 8 meetings and have gone Over 8 of their last 9 head-to-head meetings...Take it one step further, these 2 teams have averaged 232 PPG in their last 7 head-to-head meetings...And after all, we are talking about Phoenix here...The Suns are 2nd in the league in scoring and 2nd in the league in points allowed (the latter is BAD, oh-by-the-way), as Suns' games average a ridiculous 217 points per game...

Throw in the fact that the Clippers are 3rd worst in the league in 3-point % allowed while PHOE is 10th best in the league in 3-point shooting % (which is pretty good considering how many they fire up), and this game has Over written all over it...

So why only 211 when these 2 teams are averaging 232 the last 7 meetings against each other, including a 224 earlier this season?...

Well, it doesn't take much homework to see that the Clippers have had 7 straight Home Unders and 9 of their last 10 home games have gone Under...This includes their last 2 games vs. Houston (5th in the league in PPG) and Minnesota (8th in PPG)...They also had home Unders vs. the Lakers (6th in PPG) on 12/8 and San Antonio (4th in PPG) on 12/1...The Lakers game produced a 173 and the Spurs' game produced a 175...So these are 4 LEGIT scoring teams all going Under at Staples vs. the Clips...

So I pretty much have to take this game Under...

Although the "getting fancy" part of this play is that I am thinking about a hedge for 1/2 a unit on the 1Q Over...

Why?...

The Clips have gone Over in the 1Q in their last 3 Home games and the last 2 flew Over (60 and 65), and I expect this 1Q line to be about 53 or 53.5 if this line stays at 211...

I think the sharps may bet this total down as I see early action on the Under, but I won't bet the Under now because I think the public will bet this game Over based on the head-to-head info and move the total up on Sunday...

So the plan is a $100 bet on the game total Under with a $50 "hedge" bet to the 1Q Over because I figure if the 1Q doesn't go Over, then the game won't go Over, so I still win...If the 1Q flies Over and the game goes Over, I only lose 1/2 a unit...If the the 1Q goes Over and the game stays Under (like the last 3 Clippers home games) then I win both...

You with me?...

Just another day in the mind of brewers7, NBA handicapper...

Check back in the afternoon for the official plays...

No play...

Ok, after all of that, I am not playing either due to the line move against me as the total is down to 208...I hate losing value and I lost 3 points as I could have had this at 211 last night and didn't pull the trigger, so I will pass on both, but still like both of those a little...I also lean to the Clippers as PHOE is still regrouping after the trade and we saw how it took ORL 2 games before they got a win after the trade, so it may take PHOE another game before they get some rhythm with this group...

22-13, +$1095

NCAAF

Florida International/Toledo Over 57.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- When you look at the scores of the games from these two teams all season long, there are very few games where they or their opponet didn't get 30+...And with an indoor game tonight, well, I guess I can't help myself as I will grab the Over...Bowl games 5-2 to the Over on the season so far...

GL...

brewers7 wrote:

22-13, +$1095

NCAAF

Florida International/Toledo Over 57.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- When you look at the scores of the games from these two teams all season long, there are very few games where they or their opponet didn't get 30+...And with an indoor game tonight, well, I guess I can't help myself as I will grab the Over...Bowl games 5-2 to the Over on the season so far...

GL...

Right on queue!

2nd-half play...

23-13, +1195

Oklahoma City Thuunder -3.5, 2H, laying $110 to win $100 -- Dirk Nowitzki injured in 1H and is doubtful to return and OKC made a run with him out...I had a lean to OKC to begin with, so I am taking them on the 2H line...

GL...

Super-busy here at work the last 2 days...

Wanted to touch briefly on why I laid off the Under on Sunday...The total moved 3.5 points...It had moved 3 when I was ready to bet it, and to me, this was too much value to lose...At 211, I would have bet it Under (and it would have pushed)...Of course, I didn't know that before the game...But I felt that line was already about as low as it could go for me to feel comfortable going with the Under, an in fact, I posted Saturday night (late) that I expected the foolish public to bet that total up another point or 2...Never happened...The "smart" money pounded the under and lost their asses at 207.5, 208, etc., while I laid off...Had the public gotten involved heavily and it went to 212 or 213, I would have bet it under and won...

Anyway, I mention this simply as something to store away for the future in case people tell you that "a total moving 2 or 3 points either way doesn't matter"...It DOES matter...I have bet many totals on the overnight line (to beat the line movement) in the past and won where I had I waited till the line moved, I would have lost...Yet another example on Sunday where 3 points made the difference between a push and a loss...

I like 3 games tonight, but I am only going to bet one...

I like ORL, TOR and NY...

I am betting the Knicks:

23-14, +1085

New York Knicks +8.5, laying $110 to win $100 -- Sure, we all know how Miami hammered the Knicks a little over a week ago at MSG...But for people who follow me, you certainly know that I love these quick-turnaround revenge spots...This is close enough to count as another one for me...The Heat are certainly flying high now, especially after that dismantling of the Lake-Show on Christmas...But a 5-10 ATS Home record doesn't inspire confidence for me and this is a big-time let-down spot for Miami...Besides, with the way the Knicks are playing right now, I'll take them with 8.5 against anybody, anywhere...They are the team with the greater motivational spot here, as they have the revenge, while Miami just trounced them about 11 days ago, so what do they have to prove here?...The motivational edge is always THE edge that I look for when capping any game...New York has it, and I have 8.5 points of insurance in my back pocket...

GL...

3-0 last night with the 3 plays I liked and of course the one I bet was a sweat-job win while the other 2 were easy wins...Anyway, I like 2 sides and was going to bet a total, but am changing my mind and I am sure I'll regret it, we'll see...I like Minnesota and Washington tonight...yes, 2 horrible teams, but they are both at home and in favorable spots...

24-14, +$1185

Minnesota Timberwolves -2, laying $110 to win $100 -- If Minny didn't have a terrible record and if George karl wasn't such a good coach, this would be a 2-unit play or even 3...I just have a hard time betting bad teams for more than a unit...But Denver is on the back-end of a back-to-back and Minny is rested and DEN is missing Melo, Harrington and K'Mart by the looks of things...This is another quick-turnaround revenge spot game, and these have been cashing a lot here lately...DEN won the game 11 days ago with Melo and Harrngton, but they didn't have Billips and K'Mart...Minnt has the same squad back...Ok, Minny is 0-4 SU & ATS in this spot (having rest and their opponent is on a back-ender), but Denver also has not covered thier last 4 back-enders...I'll take Minny with the small number at Home in a revenge spot catching Denver on a back-ender tonight...

Was going to bet this Pacers/Wizards game Over as we have a rare Under 4 vs. an Under 8 here...WAS has 8 straight Unders and Indy has 4 straight coming into this one...I looked in my NBA database (going back to the 1991-92 season and find 8 instances for this occurance and the Over is 5-3 in this spot with one of the games missing the Over by a bucket and the other 2 games missing the Over by 7 points in each case...The only reason I am not betting it though is because EVERYTHING else points to the Under here...Indy is 6-0 to the under in back-enders this season and WAS is 4-1 to the under when they have rest and their opponent does not this season...I do like WAS to win this one and cover that small number...

GL...

Sorry for lateness, just hectic at work the last 2 days and I am still at work but like two early games...

I am mad that it got so busy last night that I missed a 2nd-half play on the Knicks as the game had just run and I missed out on a 3-unit (minimum) bet, so I am ticked at that and am wondering whether I should get a 1st-shift job or just retire and do this full-time...

Brief write-ups today as time is short...

24-15, +$1075

Washington/Indiana over 195.5, laying $220 to win $200 -- Rematch from a game 2 days ago...So we have a quick-turnaround game, where a lot of times, if it was Under the first time around, it'll be Over the 2nd time around and vice-versa...It was barely under last time and remember, I talked about the Under 8 vs. the Under 4, so now we have an Under 9 vs. and Under 5...I have no instances like this over the last 19+ years of my NBA database...Two instances of an Under 9 vs. Under 4 ad we had an Under 9 vs. Under 7...two out of 3 of those went Over...Only 16 instances of teams having a longer Under streak greater than 9 over the 18 seasons I looked at..I like the Over here...

Charlotte Hornets -4, laying $110 to win $100 -- Almost passed here as the line move just jumped from 3 to 4 after it opened at 2 (probably due to a big release on CHAR by Doc's Sports)...Wish they didn't pick Charlotte as I lost some value, but I'll still make a 1-unit bet as the Bobats are a happier team with coach Larry Brown gone as Paul Silas is just lettig these guys play...Gerard Wallace is also playing his 2nd game back from a sprained ankle and i expect him to have a bigger game than his 1st game back last time out...

GL...

Have to take this...

Washington/Indiana Over 95, 2H, laying $110 to win $100 -- The Pace for this game is way faster than it looks...The reason we have such a low 1H score is because we have 26 1H turnovers (insane) and WAS is shooting 27.8% at the half...I want to bet 3 units in the worst way here, as this play is a minmum 3-unit play, but I'll be conservative and stay with 1-unit and try and cut that 2-unit loss on the game bet to a 1-unit loss...

GL...

Got burnt on the full time Pacers over. Had it penned in as an over, didn't happen.